The front page splash in The Lawyer yesterday was that EC3 law firms would be doing well out of the forthcoming “tidal wave of litigation“.
Certain of the quotes were remarkably insensitive. The comment that”the London market’s walking around with a smile on its face” from one senior partner managed to combine smugness and hubris in equal measures. Even if that were correct, I’m not sure that I’d want to crow about it so openly.
But I am not at all convinced that it is correct.
People say that this is the early 90s all over again. That certainly was a boom time for the initially rather select band of law firms active in EC3. I cut my teeth on a plethora of E&O cases, in all fields, and there was certainly no shortage of work.
However, times have changed since then, and it’s worth bearing in mind the following factors that put us in a different place this time round:
Changes in caselaw: Back in the early 90s, there was not a well-established body of caselaw on the issues typically in dispute; now there is. So there is less to argue about.
Banks are not driving litigation: Last time around the banks were a major driver of much of the litigation against surveyors, which itself constituted a very high proportion of all E&O claims. Now, the banks will probably sit tight and keep their heads down: with a pile of our cash from the bail-out, and a perception of bankers as Public Enemy No. 1, they will not feel quite the same need to go after funds lost in shaky deals, especially when to do so might expose their own perhaps questionable practices to the public gaze.
Increased professionalism within insurers: Since the 90s, insurers have become very much more professional in what they write and, more importantly, in how they manage and control claims. Back then, it was comparatively rare to have in-house claims counsel or solicitors amongst your claims team; now, it is the norm. Insurers are much more capable now of triaging claims and filtering out the ones that need to go on to external solicitors. And when cases do go out to lawyers, the insurers’ claims team tends to be much more pro-active about managing them and getting results–gone are the days when a one year qualified solicitor could simply put the case on auto-pilot and then settle very shortly before trial, collecting money every time the case passed Go.
Changes in the Court system: Reforms in the way the courts handle cases has also had a huge effort, with claims issued in the Commercial Court dropping from (from memory) about 147,000 in 1995 to about 14,700 in 2005. Fast-track procedures, the pre-action protocols, increased and interventionist case management: all of these have had a powerful effect in weeding out unmeritorious claims (and defences).
Circumstances -v- Claims: Anecdotal evidence tends to support the view that, whilst the notification of circumstances has shot through the roof, that is not as yet translating into anything like the same number of claims. Claims will rise in time, no doubt, but I don’t think we’re ever going to see them anywhere near matching notifications.
Too many lawyers: Back in the Good Old Days, there were really only a few specialist law firms around who worked significantly with the EC3 market. Once others perceived it as a gravy train, the vultures descended and a whole raft of firms suddenly began to claim an expertise in the field. While a few fell by the wayside for various reasons–no expertise, marketing to the ‘wrong’ sector and getting killed on rates etc–there are still enough around claiming specialism to make it something of a buyer’s market.
We are undoubtedly going to see a rise in claims and a concomitant rise in work for solicitors advising the insurance industry. That is almost inevitable in a recession, for basic human reasons–when the money dries up, people frequently have to litigate to try and recoup legitimate monies (say, an architect who is not paid his fees, suing his client and then facing a counterclaim many times the value of those fees) or, fraudulently, they make false claims against insurers.
However, save in one area, I don’t think we’re going to see a “tidal wave of litigation” for all the reasons above. That one area? You may find some measure of ironic amusement in that the one field that really does seem to be motoring is…(wait for it)…solicitors’ negligence.
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