OK, you can all stop cheering now. Yes, you, at the back there. Oh well, all right then, but only for a bit.
According to a Telegraph interview, Professor Alan Blinder, of Princeton, believes that within the next generation, a whole host of ’safe’ professions–including lawyers, economists and accountants–will have been ‘offshored’ to India, China and the like:
From the best accountants and lawyers to the smartest derivatives traders to teachers and lecturers, many of today’s most prestigious jobs could, thanks to globalisation and improved communications technology, just as easily be done more cheaply in places such as India and China.
The result, he predicts, is that between 30 million and 40 million US jobs could go within the next generation. Bear in mind that this is around a quarter of the US workforce, and that on that basis the comparable number over here could be as much as eight million (all major Anglo-Saxon economies will be affected). It is more than a little perturbing. [emphasis added]
Correctly, Prof. Blinder views this as of prime concern for parents–the collective wisdom over the last generation or two was to give your kids the best education you could, but now that seems perhaps questionable. After all, coming at it from a slightly different angle, look what has happened in Singapore, which I understand has the highest per capita count of graduates, and where there simply aren’t enough skilled jobs to go round. Astrophysicists are sweeping the streets.
“Lawyers involved in family disputes, and criminal lawyers - they’ve got to stay around. But lawyers that write contracts, and lots of accountants, maybe that kind of education is not such a fabulous idea. Educating people to go into what I call the personal services is a good idea - some of which don’t require all that much education - so electricians, carpenters, plumbers, roofers - skilled trades.
I remember something to this same effect in the Economist about 3 years ago (and wondering if I shouldn’t become a plumber…).
“This is a very new thought for the highly-educated, white-collar class to think that they may have to compete with low-wage foreign workers. Manufacturers have been doing that for generations. But accountants, lawyers, intellectuals?”
Hmm. David Giacalone goes on to suggest other factors that will shape the legal profession. He believes that the biggest threat to lawyers is an increased awareness by individuals and corporations that they can competently handle much of their legal needs with little or no assistance from lawyers, thanks largely to advances in technology.
By combining the existence of a literate public with the power of computer technology, with a judiciary that understands that our court system exists for the public (rather than for judges or the bar), and with lawyers willing and able to “unbundle” their services and perform discrete tasks for clients who want to handle their own legal matters, we can now make it possible for self-help to be a viable option for solving most of the legal problems of most Americans. Of course, those who want to hire a lawyer, or who have issues that can only be adequately handled by a professional trained in the law, should be able to find reasonably-priced, competent legal assistance.
Unbundling is an excellent idea, though it’s not a magic bullet and has to be managed carefully. It has some real cost-saving benefits and also ensures that the individual/corporation retains an active interest in its own affairs. Lawyers can set out a course of an expected process and say, Right, you will need us here, here and here to do X, Y and Z; but this, this and this, you don’t really need us. We’ll give you a steer and a nudge if you need it, and if you get out of your depth, give us a call, but basically you can do this by yourself.
I remain slightly cautious, though, about the scale of legal work that can be off-shored, simply because so much law is local and depends on an intimate knowledge of the law of a particular country. But I guess you can almost as easily research UK law in Hyderabad as in Huddersfield, and I suspect that for a large enough part of medium- to low-grade drafting work, it’s perfectly feasible.
Looking beyond professionals, though, what of other white collar workers? What about claims people? It may well be that a core of people will be needed to discuss issues with their underwriters, manage disputes, go out in the field on exceptionally difficult or complex cases, but it’s hard–if you accept these economics–to see a huge case for the majority of claims handlers to be sitting in Horsham, Croydon or even Fenchurch Street at high rates and overheads.
I know, I know–people have been saying this for years and not an awful lot has happened, but ideas and technologies sometimes take a while to become mainstream and acted upon.
Maybe time to put your daughter on the stage, after all.
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