The imperfect storm

Accuweather have a good, non-alarmist – but alarming – piece on the likelihood of a major hurricane hitting the NE seaboard of the US.

…insurance claims resulting from damage due to Hurricane Katrina have been estimated at $23 billion, making it the costliest storm in U.S. history. The density and value of developed property in the northeastern U.S. means that the damage from a direct hit from a major storm similar to the 1938 hurricane might conceivably rival or surpass that of Hurricane Katrina.

Because a hurricane of this magnitude has not made landfall in the northeastern U.S. in nearly 60 years, few Americans are even aware that hurricanes can and do directly impact this part of the country. Because most hurricanes in the last 50 years have been a southern U.S. phenomenon, preparedness for a major hurricane along the Northeast coast is not as thorough. But the storm that struck Providence on Sept. 21, 1938, traveled northward along the Gulf Stream and first made landfall in Westhampton, Long Island before ripping a path across the island and continuing north to Rhode Island…It altered the Long Island coastline, created the Shinnecock Inlet, and has since been known as “the Long Island Express.”

Other interesting factoids that will give reinsurers pause for thought:

• 2006 will be more active in terms of storms than the norm, but less than 2005.  Phew.
• Weather cycles tend to show that when North Atlantic storms come, they tend to make landfall.
• The upper Texas coast is going to be the scene of increased hurricane activity over the next 10 years